Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 206 game sample- PTS
- 23.2
- SOG
- 92.4
- G
- 8.5
- A
- 14.6
- PPP
- 3.1
- HIT
- 57.7
- BLK
- 32.2
- PIM
- 34.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 206 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 206 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 206 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.28
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.12
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 0.70
- BLK
- 0.39
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.28 | 65 | 10:56 |
| 2024-25 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.26 | 48 | 13:01 |
| 2023-24 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.21 | 27 | 9:45 |
| 2022-23 | 26 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0.42 | 38 | 12:36 |
| 2021-22 | 62 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 0.40 | 92 | 13:52 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 11:57 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs DET | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13:38 |
| Apr 13 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:43 |
| Apr 11 | @ TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11:47 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:16 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 |
| Mar 28 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.2 | 6 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 53 | 104 |
| 2024-25 | 5.9 | 5 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 32 | 82 |
| 2023-24 | 1.7 | 1 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 13 | 31 |
| 2022-23 | 3.6 | 2 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 23 | 55 |
| 2021-22 | 8.6 | 13 | plus 4.4 goals above expected | 55 | 122 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 12 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
104 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.