Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 419 game sample- PTS
- 38.6
- SOG
- 172.8
- G
- 8.2
- A
- 30.5
- PPP
- 10.5
- HIT
- 197.2
- BLK
- 178.7
- PIM
- 65.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 419 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 419 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 419 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 2.11
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 2.41
- BLK
- 2.19
- PIM
- 0.81
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 4 | 24 | 28 | 0.35 | 154 | 22:28 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 8 | 39 | 47 | 0.58 | 184 | 24:10 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 32 | 52 | 0.63 | 208 | 22:56 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 4 | 27 | 31 | 0.38 | 160 | 21:06 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 8 | 36 | 44 | 0.55 | 203 | 23:22 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 | 9 | 22:11 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 26 | 21:18 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19:12 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27:01 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24:04 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:46 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17:29 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:53 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 21:23 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6.3 | 4 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 72 | 234 |
| 2024-25 | 9.0 | 8 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 80 | 279 |
| 2023-24 | 9.4 | 20 | plus 10.6 goals above expected | 82 | 285 |
| 2022-23 | 7.8 | 4 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 75 | 229 |
| 2021-22 | 11.9 | 8 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 76 | 271 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 6 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 20 assists, 24 points | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 18 assists, 35 points | 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 23 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 33 assists, 39 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
234 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.