Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 206 game sample- PTS
- 25.5
- SOG
- 106.0
- G
- 11.4
- A
- 14.1
- PPP
- 2.1
- HIT
- 59.0
- BLK
- 30.4
- PIM
- 14.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 206 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 206 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 206 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.31
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.17
- SOG
- 1.29
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 0.71
- BLK
- 0.37
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 55 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0.29 | 63 | 11:10 |
| 2024-25 | 51 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 0.37 | 73 | 11:40 |
| 2023-24 | 57 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 0.33 | 89 | 11:08 |
| 2022-23 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 27 | 9:19 |
| 2021-22 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 34 | 10:52 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 8:36 |
| 2021-22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 10:39 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:07 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:21 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 |
| Mar 25 | @ TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.0 | 6 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 44 | 110 |
| 2024-25 | 7.1 | 12 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 43 | 108 |
| 2023-24 | 7.1 | 6 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 52 | 127 |
| 2022-23 | 1.7 | 1 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 16 | 36 |
| 2021-22 | 2.7 | 1 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 18 | 46 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 7 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
110 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.