Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 388 game sample- PTS
- 41.4
- SOG
- 118.0
- G
- 11.5
- A
- 29.9
- PPP
- 6.2
- HIT
- 37.4
- BLK
- 59.3
- PIM
- 22.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 388 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 388 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 388 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.51
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 1.44
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 0.45
- BLK
- 0.72
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 9 | 34 | 43 | 0.54 | 115 | 16:34 |
| 2024-25 | 56 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 0.41 | 68 | 14:42 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 0.42 | 109 | 16:16 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 0.51 | 120 | 18:09 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 21 | 32 | 53 | 0.74 | 183 | 19:11 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.70 | 41 | 19:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:13 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:41 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:05 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20:30 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.3 | 9 | minus 10.3 goals above expected | 74 | 185 |
| 2024-25 | 11.1 | 10 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 47 | 99 |
| 2023-24 | 12.9 | 13 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 61 | 150 |
| 2022-23 | 12.5 | 9 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 67 | 162 |
| 2021-22 | 23.6 | 21 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 67 | 242 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 27 assists, 35 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 16 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 29 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 24 assists, 40 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
185 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.