Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 388 game sample- PTS
- 45.5
- SOG
- 193.0
- G
- 21.9
- A
- 23.5
- PPP
- 8.2
- HIT
- 80.4
- BLK
- 82.8
- PIM
- 74.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 388 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 388 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 388 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 2.36
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 0.98
- BLK
- 1.01
- PIM
- 0.91
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 23 | 20 | 43 | 0.57 | 167 | 16:44 |
| 2024-25 | 69 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 0.38 | 158 | 14:58 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 21 | 24 | 45 | 0.61 | 173 | 16:31 |
| 2022-23 | 59 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 0.63 | 149 | 16:18 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 34 | 31 | 65 | 0.79 | 239 | 18:11 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.64 | 35 | 19:22 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1.00 | 18 | 17:26 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1.00 | 14 | 18:52 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.83 | 10 | 17:23 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:35 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21:14 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18:21 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:00 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:32 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15:09 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:42 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 24:46 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19:07 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.4 | 23 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 72 | 276 |
| 2024-25 | 14.8 | 11 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 68 | 229 |
| 2023-24 | 20.3 | 21 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 72 | 263 |
| 2022-23 | 15.6 | 15 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 58 | 225 |
| 2021-22 | 28.6 | 34 | plus 5.4 goals above expected | 79 | 341 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 19 assists, 36 points | 6 goals, 1 assist, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 19 assists, 35 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 33 goals, 24 assists, 57 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
276 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.