Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 414 game sample- PTS
- 34.4
- SOG
- 105.3
- G
- 13.1
- A
- 21.2
- PPP
- 5.5
- HIT
- 30.7
- BLK
- 61.3
- PIM
- 28.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 414 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 414 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 414 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.28
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 0.37
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 0.34 | 95 | 15:40 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 0.42 | 98 | 16:41 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 19 | 29 | 48 | 0.62 | 108 | 19:23 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 17 | 35 | 52 | 0.63 | 154 | 20:32 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 18 | 15 | 33 | 0.47 | 102 | 16:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 15 | 22:38 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.40 | 26 | 13:41 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:06 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:39 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:34 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:54 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:06 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:33 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.7 | 11 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 63 | 140 |
| 2024-25 | 15.2 | 11 | minus 4.2 goals above expected | 61 | 138 |
| 2023-24 | 16.0 | 19 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 63 | 145 |
| 2022-23 | 19.2 | 17 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 74 | 209 |
| 2021-22 | 13.9 | 18 | plus 4.1 goals above expected | 64 | 145 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 16 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 24 assists, 36 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 26 assists, 38 points | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 12 assists, 25 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
140 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.