Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 419 game sample- PTS
- 53.5
- SOG
- 154.2
- G
- 20.3
- A
- 33.2
- PPP
- 18.3
- HIT
- 88.7
- BLK
- 69.7
- PIM
- 30.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 419 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 419 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 419 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.25
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 1.88
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 1.08
- BLK
- 0.85
- PIM
- 0.38
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 17 | 31 | 48 | 0.70 | 114 | 17:53 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 0.57 | 152 | 18:05 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 15 | 29 | 44 | 0.59 | 173 | 19:41 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 22 | 42 | 64 | 0.80 | 186 | 18:39 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 42 | 40 | 82 | 1.00 | 235 | 19:57 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 10 | 18:43 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.77 | 25 | 19:13 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.75 | 34 | 21:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21:01 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20:18 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:46 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.4 | 17 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 65 | 194 |
| 2024-25 | 23.1 | 17 | minus 6.1 goals above expected | 75 | 236 |
| 2023-24 | 21.2 | 15 | minus 6.2 goals above expected | 70 | 250 |
| 2022-23 | 26.1 | 22 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 77 | 266 |
| 2021-22 | 32.9 | 42 | plus 9.1 goals above expected | 81 | 310 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 16 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 21 assists, 29 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 29 assists, 40 points | 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 31 goals, 30 assists, 61 points | 10 goals, 9 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
194 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.