Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 471 game sample- PTS
- 28.4
- SOG
- 178.2
- G
- 7.4
- A
- 21.0
- PPP
- 1.4
- HIT
- 158.5
- BLK
- 163.7
- PIM
- 89.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 471 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 471 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 471 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.35
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 2.18
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.94
- BLK
- 2.00
- PIM
- 1.10
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 0.29 | 164 | 20:58 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 0.43 | 188 | 22:22 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 0.40 | 181 | 21:53 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 12 | 31 | 43 | 0.52 | 203 | 23:30 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 0.49 | 203 | 25:03 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 15 | 23:08 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.36 | 43 | 23:16 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.24 | 43 | 18:50 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.36 | 21 | 23:02 |
| 2021-22 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.40 | 28 | 21:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25:49 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23:19 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:55 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20:05 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21:31 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:21 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24:25 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:47 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21:17 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6.2 | 7 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 78 | 238 |
| 2024-25 | 9.1 | 5 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 75 | 271 |
| 2023-24 | 9.2 | 10 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 76 | 257 |
| 2022-23 | 11.4 | 12 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 78 | 272 |
| 2021-22 | 12.4 | 9 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 67 | 286 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 26 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 30 assists, 40 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 6 assists, 6 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
238 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.