Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 428 game sample- PTS
- 45.5
- SOG
- 92.9
- G
- 14.6
- A
- 30.9
- PPP
- 11.9
- HIT
- 35.6
- BLK
- 87.9
- PIM
- 17.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 428 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 428 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 428 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 1.13
- PPP
- 0.15
- HIT
- 0.43
- BLK
- 1.07
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 18 | 37 | 55 | 0.69 | 93 | 20:28 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 10 | 25 | 35 | 0.45 | 82 | 18:52 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 0.38 | 90 | 17:59 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 0.46 | 101 | 18:41 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0.46 | 95 | 17:51 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 13 | 16:26 |
| 2022-23 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.50 | 13 | 19:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:54 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:35 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:52 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:31 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 |
| Mar 30 | vs STL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.2 | 18 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 64 | 132 |
| 2024-25 | 11.0 | 10 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 58 | 123 |
| 2023-24 | 10.9 | 10 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 62 | 120 |
| 2022-23 | 15.4 | 13 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 63 | 136 |
| 2021-22 | 9.3 | 11 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 53 | 119 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 29 assists, 39 points | 8 goals, 7 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
132 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.