Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 357 game sample- PTS
- 28.1
- SOG
- 108.5
- G
- 4.5
- A
- 23.6
- PPP
- 2.6
- HIT
- 87.9
- BLK
- 166.4
- PIM
- 17.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 357 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 357 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 357 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.34
- G
- 0.05
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 1.32
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 1.07
- BLK
- 2.04
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 0.36 | 93 | 20:49 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 0.31 | 97 | 21:05 |
| 2023-24 | 58 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 0.33 | 90 | 22:33 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 0.32 | 126 | 20:55 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 0.38 | 122 | 21:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 24:35 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 12 | 23:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:15 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16:33 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:16 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:36 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:28 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:17 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:31 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 21:15 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:53 |
| Mar 21 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.4 | 3 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 63 | 141 |
| 2024-25 | 4.5 | 5 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 62 | 141 |
| 2023-24 | 3.7 | 5 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 50 | 133 |
| 2022-23 | 5.4 | 5 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 65 | 185 |
| 2021-22 | 5.7 | 5 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 51 | 159 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 22 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
141 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.