Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 415 game sample- PTS
- 34.7
- SOG
- 115.5
- G
- 10.2
- A
- 24.5
- PPP
- 2.7
- HIT
- 66.4
- BLK
- 156.8
- PIM
- 32.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 415 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 415 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 415 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 1.41
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 0.81
- BLK
- 1.92
- PIM
- 0.39
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0.46 | 95 | 24:13 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 0.37 | 139 | 24:30 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 10 | 34 | 44 | 0.54 | 146 | 23:49 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 0.28 | 111 | 20:24 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 0.39 | 123 | 22:58 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 13 | 26:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28:46 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 24:41 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 31:19 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23:29 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31:20 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:30 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26:59 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25:08 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26:05 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23:20 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.4 | 11 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 67 | 163 |
| 2024-25 | 10.7 | 8 | minus 2.7 goals above expected | 75 | 213 |
| 2023-24 | 10.2 | 10 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 78 | 214 |
| 2022-23 | 7.5 | 7 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 68 | 152 |
| 2021-22 | 6.9 | 7 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 69 | 174 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 26 assists, 35 points | 0 goals, 5 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 24 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
163 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.