Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 327 game sample- PTS
- 43.1
- SOG
- 133.2
- G
- 15.2
- A
- 28.0
- PPP
- 3.8
- HIT
- 48.8
- BLK
- 61.2
- PIM
- 26.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 327 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 327 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 327 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 1.62
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.59
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.32
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 18 | 33 | 51 | 0.64 | 151 | 18:28 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 0.40 | 104 | 15:14 |
| 2023-24 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.30 | 35 | 15:32 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 0.44 | 88 | 16:52 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.59 | 87 | 17:22 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.40 | 16 | 18:06 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 7 | 16:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:49 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14:30 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18:43 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:13 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:09 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.3 | 18 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 73 | 225 |
| 2024-25 | 15.1 | 12 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 71 | 167 |
| 2023-24 | 3.7 | 5 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 23 | 44 |
| 2022-23 | 12.4 | 10 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 51 | 115 |
| 2021-22 | 11.1 | 11 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 47 | 116 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 29 assists, 44 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 15 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
225 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.