Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 323 game sample- PTS
- 36.2
- SOG
- 162.1
- G
- 10.7
- A
- 25.6
- PPP
- 4.7
- HIT
- 55.7
- BLK
- 161.0
- PIM
- 39.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 323 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 323 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 323 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 1.98
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.68
- BLK
- 1.97
- PIM
- 0.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 53 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 0.38 | 96 | 18:45 |
| 2024-25 | 65 | 7 | 33 | 40 | 0.62 | 164 | 22:46 |
| 2023-24 | 63 | 12 | 9 | 21 | 0.33 | 108 | 19:46 |
| 2022-23 | 63 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 0.29 | 140 | 19:43 |
| 2021-22 | 51 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.20 | 87 | 14:01 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.67 | 9 | 16:53 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0.45 | 38 | 20:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17:29 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:10 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:02 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:01 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:11 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:14 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.9 | 8 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 51 | 132 |
| 2024-25 | 9.9 | 7 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 64 | 240 |
| 2023-24 | 4.9 | 11 | plus 6.1 goals above expected | 55 | 159 |
| 2022-23 | 7.3 | 9 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 59 | 183 |
| 2021-22 | 5.0 | 3 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 46 | 122 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 24 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 8 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 5 assists, 15 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
132 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.