Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 406 game sample- PTS
- 42.3
- SOG
- 153.6
- G
- 17.9
- A
- 24.4
- PPP
- 13.9
- HIT
- 62.0
- BLK
- 24.3
- PIM
- 48.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 406 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 406 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 406 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.52
- G
- 0.22
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 1.88
- PPP
- 0.17
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 0.29
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 14 | 19 | 33 | 0.45 | 126 | 14:26 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 19 | 19 | 38 | 0.50 | 155 | 15:32 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 19 | 36 | 55 | 0.68 | 168 | 15:41 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 23 | 26 | 49 | 0.60 | 174 | 15:48 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 23 | 40 | 63 | 0.80 | 175 | 15:32 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 9:11 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 9 | 14:34 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 6 | 15:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 |
| Mar 29 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Mar 28 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:23 |
| Mar 24 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 |
| Mar 22 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 |
| Mar 21 | @ MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:40 |
| Mar 18 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:11 |
| Mar 16 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.4 | 14 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 67 | 222 |
| 2024-25 | 21.6 | 19 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 67 | 237 |
| 2023-24 | 22.6 | 19 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 76 | 242 |
| 2022-23 | 27.6 | 23 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 72 | 252 |
| 2021-22 | 24.2 | 23 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 76 | 242 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 7 goals, 14 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 23 assists, 39 points | 7 goals, 3 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 37 assists, 58 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
222 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.