Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 416 game sample- PTS
- 59.1
- SOG
- 139.2
- G
- 23.6
- A
- 35.5
- PPP
- 16.6
- HIT
- 76.4
- BLK
- 27.6
- PIM
- 25.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 416 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 416 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 416 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.72
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.43
- SOG
- 1.70
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 0.93
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.30
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 30 | 35 | 65 | 0.83 | 131 | 16:51 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 14 | 33 | 47 | 0.57 | 132 | 19:04 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 21 | 38 | 59 | 0.76 | 148 | 18:07 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 21 | 36 | 57 | 0.70 | 131 | 16:04 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 0.51 | 148 | 16:51 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 11 | 18:07 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.46 | 19 | 18:04 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.86 | 15 | 17:31 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:19 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19:54 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17:02 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:58 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.6 | 30 | plus 8.4 goals above expected | 71 | 204 |
| 2024-25 | 20.9 | 14 | minus 6.9 goals above expected | 76 | 199 |
| 2023-24 | 20.3 | 21 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 72 | 211 |
| 2022-23 | 17.0 | 21 | plus 4.0 goals above expected | 76 | 179 |
| 2021-22 | 21.0 | 15 | minus 6.0 goals above expected | 67 | 211 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points | 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 27 assists, 37 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 29 assists, 44 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 30 assists, 48 points | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
204 attempts · 30 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.