Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 464 game sample- PTS
- 78.7
- SOG
- 206.8
- G
- 30.0
- A
- 48.7
- PPP
- 25.6
- HIT
- 78.6
- BLK
- 29.0
- PIM
- 45.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 464 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 464 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 464 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.96
- G
- 0.37
- A
- 0.60
- SOG
- 2.53
- PPP
- 0.31
- HIT
- 0.96
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.56
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 27 | 53 | 80 | 1.01 | 195 | 19:37 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 29 | 45 | 74 | 0.94 | 207 | 20:06 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 36 | 53 | 89 | 1.14 | 216 | 19:38 |
| 2022-23 | 75 | 36 | 31 | 67 | 0.89 | 218 | 19:30 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 37 | 44 | 81 | 1.03 | 221 | 18:57 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.63 | 37 | 20:49 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 1.00 | 41 | 20:47 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1.09 | 30 | 21:55 |
| 2022-23 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.80 | 42 | 20:27 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.79 | 32 | 19:12 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:14 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24:51 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21:37 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:49 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.5 | 27 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 76 | 313 |
| 2024-25 | 28.6 | 29 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 75 | 338 |
| 2023-24 | 28.6 | 36 | plus 7.4 goals above expected | 76 | 311 |
| 2022-23 | 33.3 | 36 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 74 | 311 |
| 2021-22 | 37.6 | 37 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 76 | 329 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 30 assists, 48 points | 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 23 assists, 44 points | 5 goals, 18 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points |
| 2023-24 | 24 goals, 33 assists, 57 points | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 26 goals, 22 assists, 48 points | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 28 assists, 51 points | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
313 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.