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Brandon Carlo

Brandon Carlo

STL·DJersey number #25
Played for TOR in the game shown
TOR@SJS
Latest captured market
Apr 2 · 10:00 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 408 game sample
PTS
12.4
SOG
92.3
G
1.8
A
10.6
PPP
0.1
HIT
107.7
BLK
149.2
PIM
46.0

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among defencemen · 508 ranked

Production

Style & role

Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs
PTS
0.15
G
0.02
A
0.13
SOG
1.12
PPP
0.00
HIT
1.31
BLK
1.83
PIM
0.56

Season totals

regular season
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-26550770.136619:22
2024-2583111120.147718:54
2023-2476410140.187919:54
2022-2375313160.219418:50
2021-227969150.1912519:43

Playoffs

postseason only
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2024-25130000.001419:05
2023-24133140.312019:55
2022-2370440.571619:58
2021-2270110.14418:17

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Apr 2 lineG 0/10PPP 0/10BLK 3/10
DateOppSOGGAPPPHITBLKPIMTOI
Apr 8vs WSH100002012:07
Apr 4@ LAK100013019:15
Apr 2@ SJS100011017:57
Mar 30@ ANA100001021:50
Mar 28@ STL100011019:26
Mar 25vs NYR100033022:16
Mar 24@ BOS200020218:20
Mar 21@ OTT001000018:18
Mar 20vs CAR100021416:24
Mar 17vs NYI400010219:05

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season
SeasonxGGGAxGPAtt
2025-262.50minus 2.5 goals above expected4195
2024-252.91minus 1.9 goals above expected66128
2023-242.94plus 1.1 goals above expected58121
2022-235.83minus 2.8 goals above expected58127
2021-224.16plus 1.9 goals above expected65162

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season
SeasonEven strengthPower playShorthanded
2025-260 goals, 6 assists, 6 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
2024-251 goal, 11 assists, 12 points0-0-00 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
2023-244 goals, 10 assists, 14 points0-0-00 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
2022-233 goals, 11 assists, 14 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points
2021-225 goals, 8 assists, 13 points0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point

Shot locations

95 attempts · 0 goals · 2025-26
Missed the net (29)Shot on goal (66)Goal (0)

Markets · Apr 2

modeled projections
G
Anytime goal
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
A
Assists
No line posted.
PPP
Power-play points
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
HITS
Hits
No line posted.
BLK
Blocked shots
Line
1.5
Proj
1.5
P(over)
42%
PIM
Penalty minutes
No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.