Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 398 game sample- PTS
- 40.9
- SOG
- 152.5
- G
- 20.3
- A
- 20.6
- PPP
- 5.5
- HIT
- 47.4
- BLK
- 32.7
- PIM
- 16.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 398 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 398 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 398 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.50
- G
- 0.25
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 1.86
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 0.57
- BLK
- 0.40
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 21 | 15 | 36 | 0.52 | 141 | 15:46 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 22 | 17 | 39 | 0.48 | 139 | 13:49 |
| 2023-24 | 59 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 0.53 | 117 | 15:33 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 11 | 33 | 44 | 0.57 | 123 | 16:27 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 22 | 23 | 45 | 0.56 | 131 | 14:17 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 9 | 13:08 |
| 2024-25 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.44 | 16 | 13:42 |
| 2023-24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.50 | 21 | 13:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:25 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:18 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:18 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:51 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.8 | 21 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 63 | 222 |
| 2024-25 | 18.2 | 22 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 79 | 220 |
| 2023-24 | 13.0 | 9 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 54 | 162 |
| 2022-23 | 13.6 | 11 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 66 | 164 |
| 2021-22 | 13.2 | 22 | plus 8.8 goals above expected | 71 | 182 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 13 assists, 30 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 16 assists, 37 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 25 assists, 32 points | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 20 assists, 38 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
222 attempts · 21 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.