Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 391 game sample- PTS
- 38.7
- SOG
- 144.6
- G
- 21.8
- A
- 16.9
- PPP
- 2.7
- HIT
- 215.6
- BLK
- 52.3
- PIM
- 42.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 391 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 391 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 391 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.76
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 2.64
- BLK
- 0.64
- PIM
- 0.52
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 0.54 | 141 | 16:36 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 0.22 | 126 | 13:44 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 23 | 19 | 42 | 0.52 | 171 | 16:49 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 24 | 21 | 45 | 0.58 | 151 | 17:45 |
| 2021-22 | 65 | 20 | 14 | 34 | 0.52 | 131 | 17:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.83 | 11 | 21:33 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18:00 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 28:24 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 28:56 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:01 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17:39 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:32 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:06 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.8 | 24 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 78 | 227 |
| 2024-25 | 17.2 | 12 | minus 5.2 goals above expected | 74 | 195 |
| 2023-24 | 21.0 | 23 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 74 | 233 |
| 2022-23 | 20.5 | 24 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 72 | 206 |
| 2021-22 | 15.2 | 20 | plus 4.8 goals above expected | 60 | 183 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 19 assists, 41 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 15 assists, 32 points | 6 goals, 3 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points | 6 goals, 2 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 10 assists, 26 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
227 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.