Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 410 game sample- PTS
- 54.3
- SOG
- 143.8
- G
- 23.6
- A
- 30.7
- PPP
- 4.9
- HIT
- 64.6
- BLK
- 67.1
- PIM
- 48.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 410 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 410 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 410 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 1.76
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.78
- BLK
- 0.82
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 23 | 29 | 52 | 0.73 | 125 | 17:19 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 27 | 32 | 59 | 0.74 | 160 | 18:41 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 0.57 | 129 | 18:31 |
| 2022-23 | 58 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 0.50 | 111 | 16:34 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 0.57 | 146 | 18:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 5 | 19:51 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 5 | 16:15 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 5 | 18:31 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.00 | 12 | 17:49 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.35 | 44 | 19:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:50 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:11 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:35 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:37 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:15 |
| Apr 9 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.3 | 23 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 65 | 184 |
| 2024-25 | 27.5 | 27 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 75 | 234 |
| 2023-24 | 19.9 | 20 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 72 | 188 |
| 2022-23 | 15.7 | 11 | minus 4.7 goals above expected | 52 | 155 |
| 2021-22 | 18.5 | 17 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 69 | 201 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 26 assists, 44 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 27 assists, 47 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 21 assists, 34 points | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
184 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.