Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 324 game sample- PTS
- 22.1
- SOG
- 99.9
- G
- 11.0
- A
- 11.1
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 147.8
- BLK
- 89.3
- PIM
- 30.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 324 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 324 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 324 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.27
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.22
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.81
- BLK
- 1.09
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 0.37 | 93 | 13:43 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.15 | 75 | 13:46 |
| 2023-24 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.13 | 59 | 12:58 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 14 | 9 | 23 | 0.30 | 102 | 14:19 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.40 | 32 | 11:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 8 | 14:00 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 7 | 14:57 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 9:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18:39 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15:45 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13:41 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 |
| Apr 14 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:05 |
| Apr 11 | vs WSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:01 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.6 | 13 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 52 | 131 |
| 2024-25 | 10.3 | 5 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 60 | 115 |
| 2023-24 | 6.6 | 4 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 41 | 78 |
| 2022-23 | 16.5 | 14 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 59 | 144 |
| 2021-22 | 4.5 | 3 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 19 | 45 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 12 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 7 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
131 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.