Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 373 game sample- PTS
- 17.5
- SOG
- 80.1
- G
- 4.8
- A
- 12.6
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 138.0
- BLK
- 108.2
- PIM
- 46.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 373 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 373 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 373 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.21
- G
- 0.06
- A
- 0.15
- SOG
- 0.97
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.69
- BLK
- 1.32
- PIM
- 0.57
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.20 | 69 | 18:02 |
| 2024-25 | 84 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.18 | 81 | 17:05 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 0.30 | 97 | 17:35 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 0.24 | 76 | 16:22 |
| 2021-22 | 36 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.22 | 49 | 15:17 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.21 | 10 | 17:40 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16:17 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:18 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15:24 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:47 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2.4 | 5 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 54 | 101 |
| 2024-25 | 3.0 | 5 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 64 | 127 |
| 2023-24 | 3.6 | 3 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 68 | 152 |
| 2022-23 | 2.7 | 3 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 59 | 114 |
| 2021-22 | 1.9 | 2 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 32 | 66 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 22 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
101 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.