Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 371 game sample- PTS
- 68.6
- SOG
- 203.7
- G
- 24.3
- A
- 44.4
- PPP
- 14.3
- HIT
- 10.1
- BLK
- 26.2
- PIM
- 19.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 371 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 371 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 371 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.84
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 2.49
- PPP
- 0.17
- HIT
- 0.12
- BLK
- 0.32
- PIM
- 0.24
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 61 | 19 | 38 | 57 | 0.93 | 161 | 18:21 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 21 | 34 | 55 | 0.71 | 188 | 18:51 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 20 | 34 | 54 | 0.71 | 172 | 18:17 |
| 2022-23 | 70 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 0.87 | 188 | 19:22 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 37 | 30 | 67 | 0.89 | 192 | 18:14 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.92 | 25 | 17:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:27 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:18 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:08 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.2 | 19 | minus 4.2 goals above expected | 59 | 246 |
| 2024-25 | 24.4 | 21 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 75 | 276 |
| 2023-24 | 19.8 | 20 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 71 | 267 |
| 2022-23 | 27.0 | 23 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 67 | 283 |
| 2021-22 | 27.0 | 36 | plus 9.0 goals above expected | 73 | 263 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 25 assists, 41 points | 1 goal, 11 assists, 12 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 25 assists, 41 points | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 31 assists, 49 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 29 goals, 23 assists, 52 points | 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
246 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.