Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 213 game sample- PTS
- 29.2
- SOG
- 107.6
- G
- 19.7
- A
- 9.6
- PPP
- 5.5
- HIT
- 70.3
- BLK
- 36.6
- PIM
- 21.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 213 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 213 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 213 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.36
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.12
- SOG
- 1.31
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 0.85
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66 | 17 | 8 | 25 | 0.38 | 96 | 11:28 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 19 | 7 | 26 | 0.32 | 90 | 10:25 |
| 2023-24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 9:48 |
| 2021-22 | 58 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 0.24 | 94 | 11:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 4 | 9:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:27 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:39 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11:02 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 |
| Mar 30 | vs STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:00 |
| Mar 28 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9:41 |
| Mar 26 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:07 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.0 | 17 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 58 | 145 |
| 2024-25 | 12.1 | 19 | plus 6.9 goals above expected | 60 | 137 |
| 2023-24 | 0.1 | 0 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 1 | 1 |
| 2021-22 | 9.2 | 5 | minus 4.2 goals above expected | 48 | 126 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 5 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 7 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
145 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.