Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 370 game sample- PTS
- 18.8
- SOG
- 80.9
- G
- 7.7
- A
- 11.2
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 181.7
- BLK
- 52.0
- PIM
- 16.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 370 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 370 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 370 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.23
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.14
- SOG
- 0.98
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 2.22
- BLK
- 0.63
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 0.25 | 70 | 11:52 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 0.24 | 76 | 10:33 |
| 2023-24 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 30 | 8:47 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 0.24 | 111 | 11:50 |
| 2021-22 | 67 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0.19 | 80 | 10:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 13 | 12:07 |
| 2023-24 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 7 | 7:07 |
| 2021-22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 7:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:48 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15:15 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:03 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:47 |
| Mar 24 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.8 | 7 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 49 | 104 |
| 2024-25 | 7.5 | 8 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 62 | 112 |
| 2023-24 | 3.5 | 1 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 23 | 46 |
| 2022-23 | 13.6 | 10 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 64 | 151 |
| 2021-22 | 10.0 | 8 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 52 | 113 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 8 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
104 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.