Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 386 game sample- PTS
- 52.3
- SOG
- 154.5
- G
- 22.4
- A
- 29.9
- PPP
- 9.5
- HIT
- 126.0
- BLK
- 34.6
- PIM
- 69.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 386 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 386 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 386 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.64
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 1.89
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 1.54
- BLK
- 0.42
- PIM
- 0.85
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 19 | 26 | 45 | 0.66 | 119 | 17:22 |
| 2024-25 | 62 | 22 | 25 | 47 | 0.76 | 134 | 15:20 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 22 | 31 | 53 | 0.65 | 150 | 15:04 |
| 2022-23 | 68 | 12 | 19 | 31 | 0.46 | 148 | 15:43 |
| 2021-22 | 54 | 18 | 29 | 47 | 0.87 | 121 | 14:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.28 | 34 | 15:16 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.38 | 24 | 16:15 |
| 2022-23 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.33 | 16 | 14:02 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 9 | 15:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:15 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:43 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:50 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 17:22 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 |
| Mar 26 | @ MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.4 | 19 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 61 | 195 |
| 2024-25 | 20.6 | 22 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 61 | 202 |
| 2023-24 | 19.1 | 21 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 73 | 228 |
| 2022-23 | 20.3 | 12 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 66 | 210 |
| 2021-22 | 15.9 | 18 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 48 | 164 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 22 assists, 38 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 20 assists, 37 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 28 assists, 45 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
195 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.