Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 370 game sample- PTS
- 59.2
- SOG
- 143.2
- G
- 11.6
- A
- 47.6
- PPP
- 19.9
- HIT
- 130.8
- BLK
- 154.4
- PIM
- 85.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 370 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 370 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 370 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.72
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.58
- SOG
- 1.75
- PPP
- 0.24
- HIT
- 1.60
- BLK
- 1.89
- PIM
- 1.05
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 11 | 50 | 61 | 0.88 | 111 | 24:23 |
| 2024-25 | 50 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 0.46 | 98 | 23:40 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 12 | 35 | 47 | 0.64 | 133 | 24:51 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 7 | 45 | 52 | 0.78 | 105 | 22:18 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 10 | 46 | 56 | 0.72 | 166 | 24:38 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 13 | 25:37 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.46 | 23 | 25:35 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.71 | 15 | 25:28 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.83 | 11 | 24:54 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 25:09 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:24 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:23 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 27:07 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 27:22 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:18 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18:18 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:31 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26:29 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 25:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.9 | 11 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 63 | 187 |
| 2024-25 | 6.2 | 7 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 46 | 140 |
| 2023-24 | 9.8 | 12 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 70 | 198 |
| 2022-23 | 6.5 | 7 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 55 | 143 |
| 2021-22 | 10.2 | 10 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 73 | 227 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 30 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 20 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 23 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points | 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
187 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.