Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 341 game sample- PTS
- 55.0
- SOG
- 214.6
- G
- 23.0
- A
- 32.0
- PPP
- 16.8
- HIT
- 66.3
- BLK
- 121.8
- PIM
- 60.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 341 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 341 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 341 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.67
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 2.62
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 0.81
- BLK
- 1.49
- PIM
- 0.74
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 26 | 34 | 60 | 0.75 | 221 | 23:20 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 20 | 27 | 47 | 0.64 | 179 | 21:04 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 0.50 | 204 | 22:23 |
| 2022-23 | 48 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 0.69 | 144 | 22:42 |
| 2021-22 | 47 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 0.45 | 141 | 22:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.50 | 18 | 23:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:21 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23:09 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:53 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17:41 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:55 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:22 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23:55 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.6 | 26 | plus 7.4 goals above expected | 77 | 355 |
| 2024-25 | 12.1 | 20 | plus 7.9 goals above expected | 71 | 304 |
| 2023-24 | 14.0 | 14 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 80 | 327 |
| 2022-23 | 11.1 | 9 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 48 | 205 |
| 2021-22 | 8.3 | 7 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 45 | 223 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 24 assists, 42 points | 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
355 attempts · 26 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.