Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 308 game sample- PTS
- 19.2
- SOG
- 107.0
- G
- 8.8
- A
- 10.4
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 81.2
- BLK
- 37.1
- PIM
- 40.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 308 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 308 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 308 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.23
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.30
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 0.99
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.49
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 0.23 | 95 | 12:25 |
| 2024-25 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.23 | 44 | 10:22 |
| 2023-24 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.14 | 48 | 10:36 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 0.35 | 98 | 13:14 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 0.25 | 97 | 12:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9 | 11:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:11 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14:44 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:50 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:57 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:11 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.9 | 8 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 54 | 128 |
| 2024-25 | 5.0 | 4 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 31 | 61 |
| 2023-24 | 4.1 | 3 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 33 | 71 |
| 2022-23 | 11.8 | 7 | minus 4.8 goals above expected | 59 | 142 |
| 2021-22 | 8.7 | 8 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 65 | 118 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
128 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.