Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 383 game sample- PTS
- 58.9
- SOG
- 153.2
- G
- 11.0
- A
- 47.9
- PPP
- 23.8
- HIT
- 62.5
- BLK
- 143.1
- PIM
- 45.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 383 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 383 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 383 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.72
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.59
- SOG
- 1.87
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 0.76
- BLK
- 1.75
- PIM
- 0.55
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 10 | 49 | 59 | 0.76 | 159 | 24:18 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 15 | 38 | 53 | 0.69 | 132 | 25:07 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | 2 | 17 | 19 | 0.56 | 53 | 22:34 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 10 | 54 | 64 | 0.81 | 156 | 23:49 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 0.49 | 149 | 22:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.83 | 7 | 27:25 |
| 2023-24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 17:43 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 11 | 26:55 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0.43 | 26 | 22:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:28 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 37:35 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 30:32 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24:25 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 25:02 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:28 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26:34 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.5 | 10 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 71 | 216 |
| 2024-25 | 8.1 | 15 | plus 6.9 goals above expected | 74 | 224 |
| 2023-24 | 2.8 | 2 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 33 | 81 |
| 2022-23 | 7.5 | 10 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 75 | 225 |
| 2021-22 | 7.7 | 7 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 73 | 206 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 26 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 20 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 29 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 24 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 24 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
216 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.