Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 279 game sample- PTS
- 22.6
- SOG
- 155.8
- G
- 10.5
- A
- 12.1
- PPP
- 3.3
- HIT
- 109.2
- BLK
- 28.9
- PIM
- 63.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 279 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 279 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 279 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.27
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.15
- SOG
- 1.90
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.33
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.77
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 56 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 0.32 | 109 | 10:55 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 0.21 | 142 | 10:37 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 0.31 | 149 | 11:51 |
| 2022-23 | 54 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.28 | 124 | 12:15 |
| 2021-22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 5:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 11:59 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 11 | 12:49 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.67 | 5 | 10:13 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:53 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:37 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10:35 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 |
| Apr 4 | @ TBL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:00 |
| Mar 17 | @ MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 |
| Mar 14 | @ WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7:25 |
| Mar 10 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10:04 |
| Mar 8 | @ PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 10 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.9 | 8 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 50 | 155 |
| 2024-25 | 12.8 | 9 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 71 | 201 |
| 2023-24 | 13.0 | 11 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 76 | 214 |
| 2022-23 | 13.3 | 5 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 53 | 178 |
| 2021-22 | 0.0 | 0 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 1 | 1 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
155 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 10
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.