Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 242 game sample- PTS
- 31.3
- SOG
- 140.1
- G
- 16.9
- A
- 14.5
- PPP
- 3.4
- HIT
- 131.0
- BLK
- 18.7
- PIM
- 32.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 242 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 242 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 242 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.71
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.60
- BLK
- 0.22
- PIM
- 0.39
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 0.39 | 147 | 12:44 |
| 2024-25 | 53 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0.36 | 75 | 11:26 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 21 | 8 | 29 | 0.39 | 111 | 11:16 |
| 2022-23 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.33 | 15 | 12:39 |
| 2021-22 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.29 | 36 | 12:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 10 | 13:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:07 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12:04 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.6 | 16 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 76 | 234 |
| 2024-25 | 8.3 | 7 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 48 | 124 |
| 2023-24 | 11.5 | 21 | plus 9.5 goals above expected | 59 | 152 |
| 2022-23 | 1.4 | 2 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 9 | 20 |
| 2021-22 | 3.7 | 4 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 19 | 49 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 7 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
234 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.