Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 352 game sample- PTS
- 23.5
- SOG
- 97.9
- G
- 10.4
- A
- 13.1
- PPP
- 1.4
- HIT
- 116.3
- BLK
- 74.8
- PIM
- 25.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 352 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 352 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 352 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.29
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.19
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.42
- BLK
- 0.91
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.22 | 65 | 12:39 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 0.27 | 99 | 13:25 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 0.44 | 101 | 15:11 |
| 2022-23 | 56 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 0.52 | 88 | 15:06 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 15 | 12 | 27 | 0.34 | 128 | 14:31 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7:57 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9:31 |
| Mar 12 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:58 |
| Mar 10 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:26 |
| Mar 8 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:57 |
| Mar 6 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:43 |
| Mar 4 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:09 |
| Mar 2 | @ NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:29 |
| Feb 28 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:17 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.5 | 6 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 50 | 103 |
| 2024-25 | 15.4 | 11 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 64 | 149 |
| 2023-24 | 14.8 | 13 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 68 | 148 |
| 2022-23 | 14.6 | 10 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 51 | 121 |
| 2021-22 | 17.2 | 15 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 72 | 173 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
103 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.