Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 263 game sample- PTS
- 29.4
- SOG
- 124.8
- G
- 16.6
- A
- 12.8
- PPP
- 2.9
- HIT
- 59.1
- BLK
- 45.6
- PIM
- 36.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 263 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 263 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 263 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.36
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.52
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 0.72
- BLK
- 0.55
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 19 | 7 | 26 | 0.37 | 104 | 13:37 |
| 2024-25 | 65 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 0.34 | 91 | 13:40 |
| 2023-24 | 41 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0.32 | 82 | 13:26 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 0.49 | 131 | 14:46 |
| 2021-22 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 9 | 11:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 14:05 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 9:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:33 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:27 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12:53 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.7 | 19 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 61 | 144 |
| 2024-25 | 9.6 | 6 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 61 | 140 |
| 2023-24 | 9.1 | 6 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 35 | 106 |
| 2022-23 | 16.5 | 14 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 65 | 185 |
| 2021-22 | 0.8 | 0 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 8 | 12 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 6 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 6 goals, 3 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
144 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.