Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 21.1
- SOG
- 76.2
- G
- 4.4
- A
- 16.7
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 136.6
- BLK
- 136.7
- PIM
- 25.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.26
- G
- 0.05
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 0.92
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.67
- BLK
- 1.67
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 0.25 | 61 | 20:34 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 0.31 | 84 | 22:41 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 0.24 | 89 | 20:38 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 0.26 | 90 | 21:40 |
| 2021-22 | 57 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.14 | 58 | 20:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 21:07 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 4 | 25:25 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 9 | 20:04 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 6 | 22:35 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 7 | 19:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:46 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 25:23 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20:39 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21:33 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:50 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:17 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:48 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23:05 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.7 | 4 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 56 | 102 |
| 2024-25 | 5.4 | 6 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 63 | 145 |
| 2023-24 | 4.6 | 2 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 61 | 132 |
| 2022-23 | 5.4 | 5 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 64 | 132 |
| 2021-22 | 3.6 | 2 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 44 | 85 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 16 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 18 assists, 24 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
102 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.