Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 371 game sample- PTS
- 47.7
- SOG
- 107.4
- G
- 16.1
- A
- 31.6
- PPP
- 9.7
- HIT
- 33.2
- BLK
- 27.3
- PIM
- 19.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 371 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 371 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 371 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.58
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 1.31
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 0.40
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 15 | 27 | 42 | 0.59 | 80 | 15:10 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 15 | 25 | 40 | 0.49 | 105 | 17:04 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 18 | 39 | 57 | 0.71 | 127 | 17:44 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 15 | 44 | 59 | 0.72 | 135 | 15:44 |
| 2021-22 | 40 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 0.48 | 79 | 16:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 8 | 14:59 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.82 | 24 | 17:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:24 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:19 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:32 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.3 | 15 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 63 | 135 |
| 2024-25 | 12.0 | 15 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 65 | 148 |
| 2023-24 | 15.4 | 18 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 70 | 172 |
| 2022-23 | 16.0 | 15 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 71 | 178 |
| 2021-22 | 7.1 | 6 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 37 | 99 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 22 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points | 3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 33 assists, 48 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 32 assists, 42 points | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
135 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.