Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 351 game sample- PTS
- 19.8
- SOG
- 78.3
- G
- 8.2
- A
- 11.6
- PPP
- 0.7
- HIT
- 163.3
- BLK
- 32.4
- PIM
- 14.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 351 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 351 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 351 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.24
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.14
- SOG
- 0.95
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.00
- BLK
- 0.39
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 73 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.18 | 64 | 11:50 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 0.29 | 87 | 13:15 |
| 2023-24 | 47 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.30 | 51 | 11:09 |
| 2022-23 | 70 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 0.30 | 67 | 11:37 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 0.41 | 74 | 13:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.38 | 7 | 9:33 |
| 2023-24 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 4 | 9:57 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 9:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:55 |
| Apr 13 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 |
| Apr 11 | @ TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:41 |
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:45 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:33 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.6 | 4 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 50 | 113 |
| 2024-25 | 10.0 | 12 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 65 | 132 |
| 2023-24 | 4.5 | 6 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 31 | 60 |
| 2022-23 | 8.6 | 10 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 54 | 94 |
| 2021-22 | 8.8 | 10 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 49 | 105 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
113 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.