Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 37.6
- SOG
- 147.5
- G
- 16.5
- A
- 21.1
- PPP
- 11.0
- HIT
- 206.6
- BLK
- 76.7
- PIM
- 27.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.46
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.80
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 2.53
- BLK
- 0.94
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 0.46 | 141 | 16:02 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 23 | 12 | 35 | 0.43 | 137 | 14:19 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 16 | 25 | 41 | 0.51 | 153 | 15:38 |
| 2022-23 | 61 | 18 | 13 | 31 | 0.51 | 116 | 14:31 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 0.31 | 151 | 13:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.57 | 28 | 16:20 |
| 2021-22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 4 | 11:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:57 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:44 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:06 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:04 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:30 |
| Mar 28 | @ BUF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.7 | 12 | minus 4.7 goals above expected | 73 | 213 |
| 2024-25 | 15.6 | 23 | plus 7.4 goals above expected | 76 | 213 |
| 2023-24 | 17.2 | 16 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 74 | 228 |
| 2022-23 | 11.6 | 18 | plus 6.4 goals above expected | 58 | 168 |
| 2021-22 | 14.1 | 11 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 67 | 209 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 9 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 16 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 9 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 10 assists, 24 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 7 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
213 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.