Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 370 game sample- PTS
- 41.8
- SOG
- 144.1
- G
- 18.6
- A
- 23.2
- PPP
- 14.3
- HIT
- 64.8
- BLK
- 48.7
- PIM
- 25.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 370 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 370 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 370 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.51
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.76
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 0.79
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 22 | 21 | 43 | 0.52 | 140 | 15:30 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 14 | 23 | 37 | 0.46 | 144 | 15:46 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 13 | 28 | 41 | 0.58 | 135 | 15:50 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 19 | 27 | 46 | 0.57 | 155 | 16:20 |
| 2021-22 | 55 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 0.29 | 85 | 13:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15:32 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:43 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:07 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.2 | 22 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 72 | 208 |
| 2024-25 | 15.7 | 14 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 69 | 205 |
| 2023-24 | 15.8 | 12 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 68 | 188 |
| 2022-23 | 19.7 | 19 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 77 | 206 |
| 2021-22 | 7.8 | 5 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 44 | 111 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 13 assists, 27 points | 8 goals, 8 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 10 assists, 22 points | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 23 assists, 41 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
208 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.