Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 341 game sample- PTS
- 36.4
- SOG
- 103.3
- G
- 13.8
- A
- 22.6
- PPP
- 1.8
- HIT
- 52.0
- BLK
- 90.2
- PIM
- 14.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 341 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 341 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 341 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.26
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 0.63
- BLK
- 1.10
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 11 | 25 | 36 | 0.48 | 94 | 15:04 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 12 | 19 | 31 | 0.46 | 71 | 13:53 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 0.36 | 111 | 15:00 |
| 2022-23 | 53 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 0.26 | 64 | 11:46 |
| 2021-22 | 57 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 0.30 | 91 | 12:12 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.45 | 17 | 12:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14:14 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:32 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:09 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Apr 22 | @ EDMPO | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.5 | 11 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 64 | 147 |
| 2024-25 | 9.1 | 12 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 48 | 105 |
| 2023-24 | 11.5 | 11 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 65 | 153 |
| 2022-23 | 8.7 | 7 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 42 | 94 |
| 2021-22 | 8.3 | 9 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 52 | 114 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 17 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 14 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
147 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.