Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 339 game sample- PTS
- 34.6
- SOG
- 153.4
- G
- 17.0
- A
- 17.6
- PPP
- 8.1
- HIT
- 146.9
- BLK
- 48.2
- PIM
- 18.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 339 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 339 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 339 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.87
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 1.80
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.22
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 0.40 | 132 | 12:55 |
| 2024-25 | 84 | 19 | 22 | 41 | 0.49 | 181 | 16:20 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 0.54 | 204 | 18:52 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 0.34 | 118 | 13:16 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.57 | 36 | 13:20 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 11:14 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9 | 13:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11:26 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:44 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:48 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.3 | 17 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 74 | 213 |
| 2024-25 | 21.3 | 19 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 76 | 279 |
| 2023-24 | 22.8 | 24 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 82 | 313 |
| 2022-23 | 12.4 | 6 | minus 6.4 goals above expected | 62 | 166 |
| 2021-22 | 3.6 | 3 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 12 | 44 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 13 assists, 25 points | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 20 assists, 34 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 10 assists, 27 points | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
213 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.