Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 325 game sample- PTS
- 41.9
- SOG
- 123.0
- G
- 16.1
- A
- 25.8
- PPP
- 6.7
- HIT
- 100.3
- BLK
- 54.2
- PIM
- 28.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 325 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 325 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 325 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.51
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 1.50
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 1.22
- BLK
- 0.66
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 18 | 29 | 47 | 0.57 | 132 | 16:14 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 16 | 21 | 37 | 0.47 | 110 | 15:53 |
| 2023-24 | 59 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.31 | 78 | 13:48 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 0.46 | 107 | 17:46 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.56 | 23 | 13:15 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.50 | 11 | 16:20 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20:53 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:19 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:35 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 |
| Apr 14 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:50 |
| Apr 13 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.5 | 18 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 70 | 184 |
| 2024-25 | 16.7 | 16 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 66 | 163 |
| 2023-24 | 8.5 | 6 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 47 | 113 |
| 2022-23 | 15.6 | 13 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 69 | 151 |
| 2021-22 | 3.9 | 5 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 14 | 32 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 23 assists, 37 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
184 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.