Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 370 game sample- PTS
- 17.3
- SOG
- 74.7
- G
- 3.3
- A
- 14.1
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 137.1
- BLK
- 136.0
- PIM
- 38.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 370 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 370 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 370 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.21
- G
- 0.04
- A
- 0.17
- SOG
- 0.91
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.67
- BLK
- 1.66
- PIM
- 0.46
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 2 | 15 | 17 | 0.22 | 67 | 20:19 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.18 | 72 | 17:31 |
| 2023-24 | 61 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 0.23 | 51 | 17:35 |
| 2022-23 | 59 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.20 | 64 | 17:07 |
| 2021-22 | 59 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 0.32 | 94 | 18:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 8 | 17:29 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 15:24 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.36 | 19 | 18:42 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 20:30 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:36 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:41 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:52 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23:31 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 29:52 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 25:45 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25:16 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24:04 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.8 | 2 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 57 | 107 |
| 2024-25 | 3.1 | 4 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 52 | 111 |
| 2023-24 | 2.6 | 2 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 45 | 79 |
| 2022-23 | 3.5 | 5 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 45 | 88 |
| 2021-22 | 4.9 | 8 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 49 | 134 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 11 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
107 attempts · 2 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.