Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 384 game sample- PTS
- 25.5
- SOG
- 78.6
- G
- 5.4
- A
- 20.1
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 147.8
- BLK
- 162.7
- PIM
- 34.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 384 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 384 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 384 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.31
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.24
- SOG
- 0.95
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.81
- BLK
- 1.99
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 5 | 22 | 27 | 0.33 | 73 | 19:17 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 0.31 | 76 | 19:00 |
| 2023-24 | 66 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 0.24 | 61 | 19:38 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0.24 | 91 | 20:00 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 0.22 | 96 | 19:39 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.75 | 8 | 21:45 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 19:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:50 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:16 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:59 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21:10 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:31 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 21:53 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 20:14 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.0 | 5 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 61 | 105 |
| 2024-25 | 4.0 | 5 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 60 | 121 |
| 2023-24 | 2.6 | 3 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 47 | 86 |
| 2022-23 | 6.2 | 6 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 58 | 124 |
| 2021-22 | 4.7 | 8 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 63 | 126 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 22 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 18 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
105 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.