Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 402 game sample- PTS
- 87.4
- SOG
- 201.2
- G
- 12.8
- A
- 74.6
- PPP
- 35.1
- HIT
- 14.9
- BLK
- 84.4
- PIM
- 35.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 402 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 402 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 402 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.07
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.91
- SOG
- 2.46
- PPP
- 0.43
- HIT
- 0.18
- BLK
- 1.03
- PIM
- 0.43
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 7 | 69 | 76 | 1.03 | 187 | 27:44 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 16 | 60 | 76 | 1.12 | 192 | 25:44 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 17 | 75 | 92 | 1.12 | 199 | 24:41 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 7 | 69 | 76 | 0.97 | 154 | 25:40 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 8 | 60 | 68 | 0.89 | 150 | 25:15 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 1.36 | 20 | 30:57 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.77 | 21 | 24:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 30:35 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 34:13 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28:32 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:07 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28:57 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28:55 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26:53 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 37:21 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 43:47 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.7 | 7 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 74 | 286 |
| 2024-25 | 10.7 | 16 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 65 | 304 |
| 2023-24 | 11.8 | 17 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 79 | 298 |
| 2022-23 | 8.3 | 7 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 72 | 219 |
| 2021-22 | 8.0 | 8 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 69 | 202 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 37 assists, 42 points | 2 goals, 32 assists, 34 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 35 assists, 47 points | 4 goals, 25 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 41 assists, 53 points | 5 goals, 34 assists, 39 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 36 assists, 41 points | 2 goals, 32 assists, 34 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 27 assists, 35 points | 0 goals, 32 assists, 32 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
286 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.