Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 411 game sample- PTS
- 65.5
- SOG
- 214.3
- G
- 29.0
- A
- 36.5
- PPP
- 24.9
- HIT
- 190.8
- BLK
- 22.8
- PIM
- 77.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 411 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 411 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 411 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.80
- G
- 0.35
- A
- 0.45
- SOG
- 2.62
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 2.33
- BLK
- 0.27
- PIM
- 0.95
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 31 | 39 | 70 | 0.89 | 203 | 16:59 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 20 | 28 | 48 | 0.67 | 180 | 17:07 |
| 2023-24 | 59 | 19 | 33 | 52 | 0.88 | 144 | 16:59 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 23 | 32 | 55 | 0.86 | 205 | 18:03 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 30 | 39 | 69 | 0.88 | 249 | 17:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.58 | 53 | 17:43 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 0.80 | 40 | 18:05 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 1.00 | 28 | 18:44 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.36 | 36 | 16:13 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 25:49 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:24 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:18 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30.1 | 31 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 78 | 319 |
| 2024-25 | 26.9 | 20 | minus 6.9 goals above expected | 67 | 277 |
| 2023-24 | 19.6 | 19 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 58 | 223 |
| 2022-23 | 25.0 | 23 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 63 | 318 |
| 2021-22 | 34.8 | 30 | minus 4.8 goals above expected | 77 | 363 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points | 12 goals, 16 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 11 goals, 8 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 21 assists, 39 points | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 26 assists, 49 points | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
319 attempts · 31 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.