Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 301 game sample- PTS
- 19.7
- SOG
- 80.3
- G
- 11.4
- A
- 8.2
- PPP
- 1.2
- HIT
- 225.1
- BLK
- 27.5
- PIM
- 35.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 301 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 301 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 301 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.24
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.10
- SOG
- 0.98
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.75
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.43
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 0.19 | 61 | 10:41 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 0.28 | 90 | 13:05 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 0.33 | 100 | 12:44 |
| 2022-23 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 0.33 | 76 | 12:50 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | 11 | 8:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 5 | 14:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:31 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:14 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6:27 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:58 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:05 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:36 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.9 | 9 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 53 | 106 |
| 2024-25 | 13.4 | 16 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 68 | 146 |
| 2023-24 | 12.5 | 7 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 65 | 154 |
| 2022-23 | 8.6 | 13 | plus 4.4 goals above expected | 45 | 95 |
| 2021-22 | 1.0 | 2 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 7 | 14 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 5 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 6 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 16 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 5 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
106 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.