Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 387 game sample- PTS
- 36.4
- SOG
- 152.3
- G
- 18.8
- A
- 17.6
- PPP
- 8.5
- HIT
- 20.2
- BLK
- 35.5
- PIM
- 11.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 387 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 387 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 387 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.86
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 0.24
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.14
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 0.37 | 142 | 16:02 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 0.44 | 128 | 16:40 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 31 | 28 | 59 | 0.72 | 179 | 17:19 |
| 2022-23 | 75 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 0.40 | 131 | 14:25 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 24 | 22 | 46 | 0.61 | 168 | 16:31 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 10:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:13 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:18 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:39 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:29 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.4 | 15 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 71 | 219 |
| 2024-25 | 16.5 | 17 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 62 | 204 |
| 2023-24 | 22.4 | 31 | plus 8.6 goals above expected | 75 | 273 |
| 2022-23 | 17.6 | 13 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 66 | 184 |
| 2021-22 | 21.4 | 24 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 72 | 238 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 22 goals, 13 assists, 35 points | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 21 assists, 41 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
219 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.