Sat, Sep 19, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Nico Sturm

MIN·F#78

vsSTL

Latest captured market

Mar 1 · 5:00 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 351 game sample

PTS: 20.8
SOG: 78.8
G: 8.8

A: 12.0
PPP: 0.1
HIT: 115.5
BLK: 39.6
PIM: 22.2

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 351 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among forwards · 973 ranked

Production

Points

Goals

Assists

Shots

PP Points

Style & role

Hits

Blocks

PIM

Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 351 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 351 games incl. playoffs

PTS: 0.25
G: 0.11
A: 0.15
SOG: 0.96
PPP: 0.00
HIT: 1.41
BLK: 0.48
PIM: 0.27

Season totals

regular season

Season	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	SOG	TOI
2025-26	49	5	6	11	0.22	37	10:56
2024-25	62	7	7	14	0.23	59	10:25
2023-24	63	5	8	13	0.21	69	14:40
2022-23	74	14	12	26	0.35	119	14:44
2021-22	74	9	11	20	0.27	101	11:54

Playoffs

postseason only

Season	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	SOG	TOI
2025-26	8	1	4	5	0.63	10	10:25
2024-25	8	0	0	0	0.00	3	8:59
2021-22	13	0	2	2	0.15	9	8:26

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Mar 1 lineG 1/10PPP 0/10

Date	Opp	SOG	G	A	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI
May 13	@ COLPO	2	0	2	2	1	0	12:54
May 11	vs COLPO	3	1	0	2	1	0	8:25
May 9	vs COLPO	1	0	0	2	0	0	8:45
May 5	@ COLPO	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:43
May 3	@ COLPO	2	0	0	0	1	0	11:15
Apr 30	vs DALPO	0	0	1	4	0	0	8:59
Apr 25	vs DALPO	2	0	1	1	1	0	11:20
Apr 22	vs DALPO	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:00
Apr 14	vs ANA	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:56
Apr 13	@ STL	2	0	0	3	0	2	11:13

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season

Season	xG	G	GAx	GP	Att
2025-26	6.8	5	minus 1.8 goals above expected	37	62
2024-25	6.4	7	plus 0.6 goals above expected	46	87
2023-24	7.6	5	minus 2.6 goals above expected	51	104
2022-23	12.3	14	plus 1.7 goals above expected	64	165
2021-22	9.3	9	minus 0.3 goals above expected	59	129

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season

Season	Even strength	Power play	Shorthanded
2025-26	4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points	0-0-0	1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point
2024-25	6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points	0-0-0	1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point
2023-24	4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points	0-0-0	1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point
2022-23	13 goals, 12 assists, 25 points	0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points	1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point
2021-22	7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points	1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point	1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point

Shot locations

62 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26

Missed the net (25)Shot on goal (32)Goal (5)

Markets · Mar 1

modeled projections

Anytime goal

Line

0.5

Proj

0.1

P(over)

Assists

No line posted.

PPP

Power-play points

Line

0.5

Proj

0.0

P(over)

HITS

Hits

No line posted.

BLK

Blocked shots

No line posted.

PIM

Penalty minutes

No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.