Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 335 game sample- PTS
- 60.3
- SOG
- 161.7
- G
- 22.9
- A
- 37.4
- PPP
- 17.5
- HIT
- 61.6
- BLK
- 31.2
- PIM
- 69.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 335 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 335 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 335 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.74
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.46
- SOG
- 1.97
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.85
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 26 | 41 | 67 | 0.83 | 167 | 18:43 |
| 2024-25 | 57 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 0.56 | 98 | 17:02 |
| 2023-24 | 31 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 0.48 | 73 | 17:05 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 23 | 42 | 65 | 0.80 | 184 | 18:50 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 0.81 | 181 | 17:55 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.60 | 12 | 18:05 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:36 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 16:31 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19:29 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 18:43 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:03 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.3 | 26 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 78 | 264 |
| 2024-25 | 12.1 | 12 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 52 | 153 |
| 2023-24 | 7.5 | 6 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 30 | 105 |
| 2022-23 | 18.6 | 23 | plus 4.4 goals above expected | 76 | 257 |
| 2021-22 | 20.7 | 23 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 72 | 251 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 28 assists, 44 points | 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 29 assists, 48 points | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 30 assists, 44 points | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
264 attempts · 26 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.